THE SHORT-TERM CONSENSUS HOTLINE (SAMPLE)
Mutual Funds Signal Alert –
Monday, July 24 – produced at 3:17 P.M. Eastern
Dow 11,033 (+165)
September S&P 1266.40 (+21.70)
Nasdaq 100 1482 (+30)
Nasdaq Composite 2057 (+37)
Russell 2000 689 (+17)
Sept. Bonds 107^23 (unch)
Energy Services Sector OIH 134 (+4)
August Crude Oil $75.05 (+$.62)
VIX 15.04 (-2.36)
Back from the Precipice.
Last Friday the NDX and Nasdaq Composite collapsed, but held narrowly above the critical midweek lows. Now a gap up opening and a big rally. But this doesn’t mean we can afford to become complacent.
NDX
Popping off of last week's new lows
Of course in the S&P it’s back to the same numbers that were so pivotal last week. On the upside it’s1269.00 which has already turned prices back with the high (so far) today of exactly 1269.00. So now it’s a triple top at 1269.00. As noted in my Forecast earlier today,
On the upside, the numbers are again pretty clear. First is last week’s short term double top at 1269.00. If it can get above and hold above this level for more than a few minutes (especially on a closing basis) then it’s got a shot – albeit a minor shot – at running up to the July 12 gap at 1282.30. For this week, that’s probably best case.
On the downside of course there is now the new (7/24) gap from Friday’s close of 1244.70 all the way up to 1249.50, this morning’s early low. “So this is just a point below Wednesday’s gap that was filled at 1245.70 and accordingly the multiple gaps at this level make the 1244-1245 level more significant as short term support. Also note that it’s a big gap. The kind of gap that will get the market’s attention on any pullback near the 1250 area. Of course, no coincidence, 1250-1251 is a support level in its own right, so we’ll watch to see if a pullback holds at this level. If not, you know where it’s headed: to the replacement gap at 1244.70.
S&P Futures
Repeating familiar patterns
Mutual Fund Models
Still on our Buy Signals.
Client Accounts
We did a little buying into last Thursday’s shakeout and
today, once again took some profits or at least cut back where it made
sense, especially in our more heavily invested accounts. Today we cut
back a bit in some of our S&P and NDX positions at the morning pricing
of 1252.61 SPX and 1468 in the NDX. We then took some profits at the close
in our Dow positions and cut back a bit in our Russell 2000, SPX and NDX
positions as well. Now back to 20-60% invested levels.
0-10% long Dow
0-15% long S&P
10-20% long NDX
5-20% long Russell 2000
0-15% long Energy Services Sector OIH
0% long bonds
H. Schiller
Released at 4:22 P.M. Eastern (sorry for the delay
– today was pretty hectic)