THE SHORT-TERM CONSENSUS HOTLINE (SAMPLE)
Mutual Funds Abbreviated Update Friday,
July 14, 2006 – produced at 3:16 P.M. Eastern
PLEASE NOTE: The time that these
reports go out is at the bottom of the report as "released."
The "produced" time at the top of the report is when we begin
production.
Dow 10,732 (-114)
September S&P 1242.50 (-5.00)
Nasdaq 100 1464 (-14)
Nasdaq Composite 2039 (-15)
Russell 2000 682 (-5)
Sept. Bonds 107^16 (+^01)
August Crude Oil $77.03 (+$.33)
VIX 18.06 (+.27)
The last bastions.
The S&P Futures now has in its sights the June 14 lows of 1229.70. The equivalent level in the cash is 1219.29 which actually will require a drop of a few points lower in the futures before it is seen – probably to the 1226.50 level or so of the September contact (at least if it happens over the next couple of sessions). Today’s low, so far, has been 1235.00 and a pretty good bounce has now followed.
S&P Futures on the Continuation Charts
Retest of the June 14 lows
Meanwhile the Nasdaq Composite is narrowly holding above its October lows at the 2025 level. A breach of this level will simply mean that another support level has given way, further weakening the near term bullish case.
For now these are the important levels holding.
Oh, and there’s the Dow nearing its June 13 lows of 10,699. So far bottoming just a couple of points above that level. Below that is the January 20 low for ’06 at 10,661. Needless to say, a break of that level would be pretty negative as well, as lots of people follow that index.
Bigger picture, I have little doubt that the market is offering a decent buying opportunity in here, as most geopolitical inspired meltdowns tend to be pretty temporary. You may recall, that back in 2001, the selloff after 9/11 promptly gave way to a 2600 point rally in the Dow in just a few months. It was clearly the bigger picture bullish perspective that was worth playing.
The VIX heating up to multi-week highs suggests the same.
Mutual Fund Models
We are still on our Buy Signals.
Client Accounts
We added to our positions yesterday, apparently jumping the gun somewhat.
The good news is that our accounts are still showing profits year to date. The bad news is we’ve given back a chunk of our earlier gains.
0-20% long Dow
5-25% long S&P
10-40% long NDX
10-25% long Russell 2000
0% long Energy Services Sector OIH
0% long bonds
Now generally back to 30-80% invested levels in equity funds.
H. Schiller
Released at 4:00 P.M. Eastern